Sonny S. Watts Bitcoin (BTC) faces a technical and macro crossroads as traders weigh the chances of a rally toward $130,000. Despite signs of strength, price action remains capped below $92,000. Analysts now warn that a failure to close above that level could stall the ongoing uptrend.
BTC traded at $88,350 as of March 24, rising 3% over the weekend but still far from its all-time high over $108,000.
Resistance at $92K Remains the Line in the Sand
Crypto trader Pentoshi flagged the $90,000–$92,000 range as a key resistance area. “Needs a 3d or 1W close above for a reclaim,” he wrote in a March 24 X post.
Open interest (OI) data from Velo revealed a $1.5 billion increase in outstanding BTC futures contracts over the past 24 hours. But IT Tech PL, an anonymous analyst on X, warned that high OI combined with rapid price increases could trigger liquidation cascades.
“High OI + Rapid Price Increase = Risk of Liquidation Cascades,” the post read.
On-Chain Signals Suggest Market Not Overheated Yet
While lower time frames point to overheated signals, others see the current move as part of a healthy consolidation.
Ali Martinez shared that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has recently hit overbought territory on the 4-hour chart. However, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. argued that broader on-chain metrics do not indicate overheating.
Adler’s Substack article highlighted that BTC remains in a “growth stage” based on cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD), a metric that tracks selling by long-term holders. He noted that BTC only triggered one sell signal during this cycle—back in March 2024.
The researcher expects Bitcoin to reach $130,000 within 90 days, citing CVDD and the investor price model, which previously flashed two sell signals in 2021.
Gold Near ATH, But BTC Lags Behind
Bitcoin’s 3% weekend rally came as gold traded just 1% below its record high of $3,057.
While BTC gains support from multiple macro trends, some traders question why the price struggles to hold above $92,000. According to Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, news of the U.S. government possibly selling gold reserves to buy Bitcoin “gave speculators some hopium.”
“With gold in ATH territory, and BTC in a correction, this would be an opportune time,” Alan wrote on March 24.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 1.5% after reports emerged that President Donald Trump might soften the impact of upcoming trade tariffs. The Kobeissi Letter said that instead of blanket rules, “sector-specific tariffs” could take effect from April 2.
Strategy Adds $584M in BTC, But Is It Enough?
On the corporate front, Strategy disclosed a $584 million BTC purchase on March 24, raising its holdings to 506,137 BTC. The firm used funds from the sale of 1.97 million shares and a broader $21 billion stock issuance program.
While the purchase offered short-term support, critics argue the company’s aggressive buying could backfire if its funding dries up. However, the broader trend remains constructive. Between March 14 and March 21, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $786 million in net inflows.
Macro Risks Still Cloud the Path to $130K
While Adler’s $130,000 prediction highlights bullish potential, traders remain cautious. The market remains reactive to macro signals, from U.S. tariff policy shifts to the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance.
Although easing inflation expectations and speculative ETF flows support Bitcoin’s trajectory, the path remains uncertain unless BTC reclaims $92,000 on the weekly close.
