Sonny S. Watts NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC) exchange balances have fallen to their lowest levels in eight years, as blockchain data indicates tightening supply and renewed institutional interest. The move has fueled debate over how high BTC can climb in the current cycle.
According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges dropped to just 7.53% on Mar. 27—the lowest since 2018. The firm called the trend a “positive development,” adding that it typically reflects reduced short-term selling pressure.
“The continued trend of coins moving into self-custody limits the chances of major sell-offs,” Santiment wrote on X.
Whales Return While ETFs Fuel Buying
The decline in exchange supply coincides with aggressive accumulation by large investors. Data from Glassnode shows whales have added over 129,000 BTC since Mar. 11—worth around $11.2 billion at market prices.
Glassnode noted the rate of accumulation was the fastest since Aug. 2024. The uptick follows dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and eased concerns around new tariffs under President Trump’s administration, expected to begin April 2.
Whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have begun offsetting steady selling pressure from retail traders. Meanwhile, steady inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have supported the ongoing recovery.
Since Mar. 14, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day, lifting BTC more than 10%. In contrast, from Feb. 10 to Mar. 13, ETF flows stalled and Bitcoin dropped 17%.
The data shows a direct link between institutional demand and BTC price direction.
From Bear Cycles to Mini Crashes
A recent research post by OKX, dated Mar. 25, points to a shift in Bitcoin’s market behavior. Earlier cycles saw drops of 50–80% during bear markets. Today, a 30% decline often triggers similar concerns.
The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio—a key on-chain metric—fell below its 365-day average on Feb. 25. The move suggested bearish sentiment ahead of visible price drops.
While the metric remains below trend, analysts expect it to recover as exchange balances fall. Lower BTC availability for sale often leads to relief rallies as supply tightens.
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $87,653—still down 19% from its all-time high of $108,786. But bulls appear to be regaining momentum.
Markets Remain Cautious Despite Accumulation
Still, sentiment in prediction markets remains conservative. On-chain data shared by Ashwin on Mar. 27 shows Polymarket participants expect Bitcoin to peak at $138,617 in 2025.
The data suggests a potential upside of 60% from current levels, but also highlights downside bets as low as $59,000. Polymarket users see the $138K target as a more realistic ceiling compared to extreme bullish forecasts.
Kalshi users offer a similar outlook. Their BTC price target stands at $122,000—just $11,500 above the current all-time high.
Ashwin said the Polymarket data “gives a realistic sentiment gauge, not just a bullish hope narrative.” The analysis compares market sentiment scores with both bearish and bullish price targets.
Support Levels Face Final Tests
With the yearly average sitting at $76,000, trader Aksel Kibar stressed that this level must hold.
“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” Kibar warned on Mar. 26.
Key support lines remain at $69,000 and $73,800. Holding these levels could confirm that Bitcoin has exited its mini bear market and entered a consolidation phase.
Meanwhile, the “Bitcoin 1Y+ HOLD wave,” tracked by Bitbo Charts, continues trending up. This reflects a broader shift toward long-term holding among investors, adding to the bullish case.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be transitioning through a period of restrained optimism. While exchange balances, whale accumulation, and ETF inflows all point to strengthening fundamentals, prediction markets caution against overconfidence.
The $138K ceiling projected for 2025 may not excite long-time holders.
